correction
The previous version of the maps accompanying this column provided incorrect locations for several metro areas. The locations have been updated. Additionally, the map showing rising star metro areas included 2020 data. An updated version with 2022 data is now included.
Amy Liu, an expert on cities and metropolitan areas, is the interim president of the Brookings Institution.
We often hear that some big cities such as New York and San Francisco are losing companies and workers while Sun Belt cities such as Dallas and Miami are attracting them. We read of challenges facing post-pandemic downtowns. The implication is that many big cities are in decline.
The pandemic did scramble where lots of people live, as they embraced working from home. The intertwined challenges of office vacancies, less reliable public transit, and real and perceived increases in crime have complicated downtown recovery efforts. At the same time, however, the pandemic accelerated demand for advanced technologies — touchless capabilities, big data and artificial intelligence — that enable people, employers and industries to stay apace of disruptive changes in the world of work and global competition. The pressure for continuous innovation has favored cities, especially those that are home to the major big-tech companies. Now, as some migration patterns begin to settle and post-pandemic efforts take hold, a broader picture of cities and their metro economies is emerging.
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The latest data, drawn from analyses by Brookings Institution experts William Frey and Mark Muro, show that big tech cities such as San Francisco, Seattle and New York are significantly rebounding. Their population losses have abated, and they remain major hubs for innovation. In fact, big cities and their surrounding suburbs and rural areas greatly contribute to the strength of the U.S. economy and keep the United States at the global forefront of advanced computing and technology.
Despite their fluctuating populations in recent years, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston remain the nation’s artificial intelligence capitals. From July 2022 through July 2023, nearly half of postings for jobs in “generative AI” were published in these five cities, plus San Jose. While it’s true that job postings are distinct from hires, they are nevertheless a good proxy for hiring activity. Nearly one-quarter of the postings were published in the Bay Area. San Francisco is hardly finished being a major tech hub; it’s the new Klondike of the generative AI gold-rush.
At the same time, many heartland and Sun Belt cities continue to grow and are becoming new centers of innovation.
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Much attention has been paid to the relocation of high-profile headquarters from northern cities to the South: Citadel from Chicago to Miami, for example, and Tesla from Palo Alto, Calif., to Austin. These moves reflect the way the U.S. population as a whole has shifted in recent decades toward the Sun Belt. From 2021 to 2022, 10 heartland and Sunbelt cities added population, in some cases reversing losses in the previous year. The most significant recent change, however, is the rise of innovative industries in these Southern cities. They are diversifying their economies to include financial tech, health tech, semiconductor manufacturing and so on — and this will ensure that quality jobs and opportunities persist.
These same cities anchor metro areas that also experienced impressive growth in digital service jobs since the depths of the pandemic. In particular, Heartland stalwarts Cleveland, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Minneapolis and Columbus, Ohio, have seen solid digital-services employment growth in the past two years.
Share this articleShareAnd many of the same “rising star” metros have been increasing their share of digital services employment in the United States. Sun Belt and Western regions now dominate the post-pandemic list of places gaining market share of tech jobs. Austin, Dallas, Denver, Miami, Salt Lake City, Nashville, Houston, Jacksonville and Provo, Utah, have become hot spots.
In short, the oft-cited “urban doom loop” belies a broader resilience — demographic and economic — among U.S. cities. Yes, they still face challenges, but many are resurgent and even dominant. That’s good for the American economy.
Yang You, a senior research assistant at the Brookings Institution, contributed data assistance to this column.
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