Your draft is getting into its latter stages, all the obvious names are off the board, and you just want to take a shot or two on players who aren’t getting much hype but are capable of providing a huge return on your minimal investment.
Or, as they’re sometimes called, “sleepers.”
There aren’t widely agreed upon standards for who gets to be defined as a sleeper, but for this exercise we’ll go with players whose average draft position (ADP) in Fantasy Pros’ aggregated half-PPR rankings places them past the 144th pick. That’s the end of the 12th round in 12-team drafts, meaning that managers in most league formats only have one or two picks left to make before closing things out with a kicker and a defense (not necessarily in that order but — free advice alert — ideally neither before the final two rounds).
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In order of their ADP, we’ll look at a player at each of the major positions who possesses a notably promising outlook.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins (ADP: 155 | positional rank: 52)
Anytime you can draft a 30-year-old running back notorious for never being able to stay healthy, you have to do it, right? Well, in this case, it might turn out to be a pretty savvy move. Sure, Mostert didn’t so much as get through his first game last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury, but skepticism about his inability to stay on the field is baked into his draft cost.
What’s enticing about that cost is that Mostert doesn’t even have to play a full season to be more than worth the dice roll. For however long he is able to suit up, you’re getting the 1B to Chase Edmonds’s 1A in Miami’s revamped backfield. Actually, make that revamped offense, because things will look a bit different (i.e., much speedier) with not only two new running backs but, more significantly, a new top wide receiver in Tyreek Hill and a new coach in Mike McDaniel. With defenses stretched vertically as well as horizontally, Mostert should find room to roam after hitting a crease.
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Having previously served as Kyle Shanahan’s offensive coordinator in San Francisco and the 49ers’ running game coordinator before that, McDaniel brings with him an intimate knowledge of a rushing scheme that teams around the league are scrambling to emulate. You know who else is familiar with that scheme? Mostert, who capped a healthy 2019 season by going bonkers for the 49ers in the playoffs. He is not so far removed from that stretch that it’s unthinkable he could regain at least some of that form, and the Dolphins recently signaled their confidence in Mostert by waiving another offseason addition at running back, Sony Michel.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders (162 | 62)
The allure of certain 30-somethings notwithstanding, most of the time your best bet for extracting value from late-round picks at running back and wide receiver is with young players. Uncertainty about their roles or abilities to adjust quickly to the NFL keeps their fantasy draft cost down, while in some cases, their real-life draft cost suggests their teams will give them plenty of chances to shine right away.
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Dotson, whom Washington made the 16th pick in the spring, hasn’t seemed to need anything handed to him. By grabbing pass after pass during offseason practices and training camp, he has immediately taken a prominent place in the Commanders’ passing attack.
To be sure, Terry McLaurin is the top receiver on the team and a solid WR2 in fantasy, but there’s not much else clearly standing in the way of Dotson putting up flex-worthy numbers as a rookie. Fellow WR Curtis Samuel has never quite put it all together, and standout TE Logan Thomas is only just starting to return from torn knee ligaments. Dotson showed at Penn State that even at a relatively undersized stature (5-foot-11, 182 pounds) he could command targets, and it’s a good bet he’ll be able to do the same in Washington’s offense.
David Njoku, TE, Browns (171 | 15)
Tasked with becoming proficient at the very differing skill sets of receiving and blocking, tight ends often take several years to develop, so it shouldn’t be held against Njoku that he has just 148 catches for 1,754 yards in five NFL seasons. At 26, he might only now be coming into his own, and the Browns showed an abundance of optimism about that scenario by bestowing on him a four-year, $56.75 million contract extension in May.
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That came a couple of months after Cleveland waved goodbye to starting TE Austin Hooper, giving Njoku and teammate Harrison Bryant chances to ascend the depth chart. The team’s biggest offseason move, of course, was acquiring QB Deshaun Watson, and while his 11-game suspension is not ideal for Njoku’s immediate outlook, all is not lost with backup Jacoby Brissett. The last time Brissett started a majority of his team’s games (15 of 16 for the 2019 Colts), the TE position was targeted at a rate of nearly 28 percent.
David Njoku has an 80% route participation with the Browns starters this preseason.
Stefanski has rotated TEs historically, but it looks like Njoku will finally be allowed to play a full-time role.
>=80% is strong; tough to finish outside the top 12 (even w/ Brissett)
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 28, 2022As with Dotson, Njoku is competing with one established star wideout, Amari Cooper, and a bunch of question marks (i.e., Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell and Anthony Schwartz). This has the makings of a breakout season for the athletic Njoku, and if not, well, you can drop him at no great loss.
Jameis Winston, QB, Saints (183 | 23)
Sure, when Winston was last seen quarterbacking a team for a full season, he threw 30 picks (including a record seven returned for touchdowns) for the 2019 Buccaneers, who proceeded to cut ties with him and quickly win a Super Bowl title with a slightly less error-prone QB named Tom Brady. That sequence turned Winston, who had already been a figure of mockery on multiple occasions, into even more of a punchline.
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However, there is reason to take him seriously this year as a potential fantasy asset. Having moved from Tampa Bay to New Orleans, where he watched and learned during the 2020 season from then-QB Drew Brees and former coach Sean Payton, Winston won the starting job last season and was acquitting himself well before suffering a season-ending knee injury.
During that abbreviated stint, Winston played with much greater efficiency than he had previously shown, setting career highs in touchdown percentage, adjusted yards per attempt and passer rating with a career low in interception percentage. Now he has arguably the best receiving corps of his career, especially if WR Michael Thomas can return to full health and headline a group that also includes talented rookie Chris Olave and reliable veteran Jarvis Landry, not to mention the pass-catching skills of RB Alvin Kamara.
But wait!
How about some super-deep sleepers? These players are going after the 244th pick by ADP but offer all sorts of upside.
- RB: Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs (I guess I really do have a thing for ancient running backs)
- WR: Parris Campbell, Colts (primed, if he can stay healthy, for a major role)
- TE: Brevin Jordan, Texans (could vie with WR Nico Collins as the No. 2 option behind Brandin Cooks)
- QB: Malik Willis, Titans (rushing ability alone could make him a top-12 option if he supplants Ryan Tannehill for any reason)
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